It might not be the first time this question has come up, but here’s an interesting thought experiment I came across. A Reddit user claimed they wrote a program to generate Bitcoin addresses (edit: private keys). and check if they contained any value. Initially, I thought it was unlikely they’d succeed, but it got me wondering: what if a group or government made a serious attempt to generate a significant percentage of all possible Bitcoin addresses? ( This could potentially make the network less secure and valuable.
Since I’m not equipped to calculate this on my own, I turned to ChatGPT for help. Here’s a summary of our conversation: (ps. The chatGPT responses are condensed to keep it light reading)
Edit: from the comments I see that I wasn't clear wether I was talking about private or public keys. This is regarding private keys
Me: How many Bitcoin addresses could a standard PC generate in a minute using a dedicated program?
ChatGPT: A standard modern PC can generate approximately 60,000 to 600,000 Bitcoin addresses per minute.
Me: How long would it take 1,000 computers to generate 10% of all possible Bitcoin addresses with the previous estimate of 600,000 addresses per minute?
ChatGPT: It would take approximately 4.62×10324.62 \times 10^{32}4.62×1032 years for 1,000 computers, each generating 600,000 Bitcoin addresses per minute, to generate 10% of all possible Bitcoin addresses. This time span is incomprehensibly vast, far exceeding the age of the universe, making such an attempt practically impossible with current technology.
Me: With advancements in computing power, how long would it take to achieve 1% of all possible addresses in 10 years?
ChatGPT: Even with a 32-fold increase in computing power over 10 years, it would still take approximately 1.45×10311.45 \times 10^{31}1.45×1031 years to generate 1% of all possible Bitcoin addresses. This timeframe remains far beyond any practical limits, illustrating the immense difficulty and impracticality of targeting a large fraction of Bitcoin addresses, even with significant technological advancements.
Me: Could you help me visualize this?
ChatGPT: Visualizing the Scale:
- 1 Billion Years: A billion years is 10910^9109 years. Imagine stacking 13.8 billion-year periods one after another—this is still minuscule compared to the time required.
- 1 Trillion Years: The age of the universe is a fraction of the required time. You’d need 102210^{22}1022 times more such periods to even come close.
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