People make fun of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, but the “Basically a Fire Sale” level has held since 2014 and will likely do so again in 2022

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart was made in 2014 as a joke in response to the S2F model by PlanB. It uses a valid and simple statistical technique (logarithmic growth curve) to forecast the potential future price direction of Bitcoin and was revised twice in 2014 yet has not changed since 2014.

While PlanB’s model failed and caused retail to lose a ton of money last year due to everyone expecting 100K, the Rainbow Chart has shown optimal moments for entry for the past 8 years, so since 2014. More specifically, the Basically a Fire Sale” has held and marked the bottom in 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, and the same thing could very well be happening again now in 2022.

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The Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart

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The price dipped below the Basically a Fire Sale band once in 2020 and bounced hard. It just dipped its toes below the Basically a Fire Sale band one more time and bounced again.

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A Zoomed in perspective of the last months - hold the (blue) line!

The Basically a Fire Sale band holding was rather unexpected because everyone and their mother was expecting $10K. The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart even got updated with another band below the Basically a Fire Sale band titled ‘1 BTC = 1 BTC’ for a day as a joke when the price was around $18k and it looked like the chart would break.

The Rainbow Price Chart with the 1 BTC = 1 BTC band added as a joke

Questions

• Now that the bottom of the lower band looks to be holding in 2022 once again, is history repeating and is the Rainbow Chart showing the bottom of the bear here once more? Or is it destined to fail?
• Do you believe that the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart will ever reach the higher bands?