What does a bear market have in a way lower rate than a bull market? Yes, you are right, it is profit-taking by both short term holders AND long term holders. It is very logical that a bear market does not have much profit-taking happening as short term holders are most definitely in losses after buying just a few weeks ago and the price also going most likely down since then. Long term holders are mostly there form the last one or two years, which then also enter the loss zone steadily in a deep bear market. Here we have on metric that shows this perfectly via the on-chain, the SOPR (Spend Output Profit Ratio) which shows the profit-taking from both long term holders and short term holders separately. Being over the 1.0 horizontal on this metric means that they are taking profits and also are in profit. Here we can see the short-term holders metrics, the red one is the basic STH SOPR and the blue one is entity-adjusted. Especially this chart perfectly shows the difference of bull market and bear market for short term holder profit-taking. Only near and during the bottom formation STH are in clear losses. After that short term holders are back taking profits. This here is the chart for long term holders profit-taking and we can see that here we are not yet in the profit-taking zone but are recovering towards it. Just as in 2019, the first leg up is not enough to turn this metric back but a longer rally is needed, making this the ultimate bull market indicator and if we make this flash green, the possibility will be higher for a proper reversal. [link] [comments] |
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