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Shorting Coinbase? Correlation to Bitcoin Analysis

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Shorting Coinbase? Correlation to Bitcoin Analysis

Disclaimer* I never seriously analyse assets (except Bitcoin), securities, or anything like that. Take my analysis with a grain of salt. This isn't a serious post, just something out of interest.

I saw the post by u/Soggy_Eagle_1733 on Coinbase essentially freezing funds and preventing Bitcoin and even fiat withdrawals. Absolutely criminal in my opinion. I had a funny thought about shorting Coinbase but I'm too scared because of the correlation to crypto assets, namely Bitcoin. Bitcoin is probably a better investment anyway.

I used GPT4 to make some graphs for me using Yahoo Finance data so I could look at the correlation alongside the asset prices. I also looked into their quarterly form 10-K filing with the SEC which shows their balance sheet as of 31MAR2023 and summarised some of it below:

Description March 31, 2023 (Billion $) December 31, 2022 (Billion $)
Crypto Assets Held by Coinbase 0.515 0.424
Crypto Assets Held by Customers 124.358 75.413
Cash and Cash Equivalents 5.018 4.425
Total Assets 139.302 89.725
Total Liabilities 133.627 84.270
Total Stakeholder's Equity 5.675 5.455

Interstingly, their short % of float is 12.73% which is kind of high, right? Maybe the short investors know something we don't about their internals, or none of them think Bitcoin price appreciation is possible/ will even hurt them.

Below is the correlation chart I made. Note* data goes back to when COINBASE made their IPO.

*Normalised Prices are in USD

TL-DR; Coinbase holds ~$515M in "crypto assets" (about 3% of their Mkt Cap). Probably don't short Coinbase if you believe in Bitcoin. Probably buy Bitcoin instead. Non-serious post.

submitted by /u/MCHappster1
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