Since people are getting really bullish, I'm cancelling my bullish post, and I'll bring up the key bearish points that I personally think are the most significant right now, and that even bullish people should keep in mind.

1- Even if things do go bullish, don't expect the same insane returns people were able to get in the past.

History is showing that it's unlikely that the next bull run will be as big as the previous ones

Each cycle has been less intense. Especially if you look at the bull runs. Whatever metric you use. From bear market bottom to bull ATH, from the halving day, from the end of the bear market, the result is the same: each bull run has become less intense than the previous one.

Even if there's some amazing news.

Remember that we had two MAJOR black swan events in the last bear market. The collapse of a major stablecoin, and the end of a major crypto exchange. Yet, those two massive bear events weren't able to make this last bear cycle more intense than previous ones. It was actually the least intense bear market. With Bitcoin only dropping about 78%, despite the black swans and a worldwide economic crisis. Compared to 80%+ and 90%+ in previous bear markets.

The only thing that would make the next bull run outpace previous ones, would be something really crazy, like Saudi Arabia making Bitcoin their currency, or OPEC deciding on going with the petrobitcoin.

So it's not out of the question, just not the most realistic scenario.

2- This is still a very volatile and speculative market.

Short term, this market can still burn you, and doesn't always make sense.

This market has shown that during bad macro economic data, you can have big rallies. And during stock bull markets, and strong macro economic data, the crypto market can still completely crash.

3- There is still low volume and this market can be pushed by whales.

Which also accounts for a lot of short term unpredictability. When you're a whale, your biggest opportunity come from volatility. So some of those whales may actually be pushing that volatility.

4- This is the type of market where your emotions and impatience can betray you.

If you are very quick at getting over-excited over some green candles, you'll probably be the type of person to get a panic attack at the first red candle.

It's OK, most people react the same way, and get betrayed by their emotions. But this is also why this market is a big rollercoaster. Most people overreact.

5- While adoption has been growing steadily, we still have a long way to mass adoption.

6- While the tech side has been developing fast, along with growing utility, crypto hasn't been able to fully solved the trilemma. Which is key for its future as a tech.

7- There are still gonna be bad players, bad exchanges, bad coins in this market, that could bring back fear and derail bullish trends.

8- While some alt coins could have big growth in the next bull run, outpace Bitcoin, it's not easy to figure out which ones the market will pick. And some could run into fatal problems.

9- While not being able to push Bitcoin to a new low, US regulators are still on their crypto regulation march, and probably have ulterior motives to push CBDC.

10- While the US has seen stocks going bullish, GDP growth, CPI going back down, China, UK, and many countries around the world, are facing potential deeper recession with economic factors deteriorating.

11- The specter of a potential housing market correction or crash, is looming on all markets.