Some hopium

I do think 40k is the floor for the foreseeable future.

We didn't have nearly as much froth as previous bull markets. This means more folks know what the hell are doing, and there will be less than an 80% downturn.

Retail FOMO was very much not the driver of the July - Nov pump, with some small exception near the end. But still not nearly as much retail going YOLO as in Feb-April.

This log chart is the only damn model you'll ever need. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/

As you can see, we hit the 2nd curve below the mid dev in July, which was at 29k. That was after peak Elon and China FUD. We don't have that kinda FUD now, just macro stuff like interest rates and whatnot. Less panic selling off by retail not to really drive down prices to ~ 80% of ATH.

Remember, Bitcoin is damn time spiral...that 2nd line dev is at 40k in Jan. So I think 40k is the floor for this drawdown.