In about nine months, expected near April 24, 2024, Bitcoin is set to experience its fourth block reward halving. Many supporters and market observers anticipate a price increase prior to the event. According to an anonymous market analyst known as Plan B, bitcoin’s price could ascend to between $40,000 and $50,000 in the run-up to the next block reward halving.
Plan B Estimates Bitcoin Could Cross $40K Ahead of Fourth Halving Amidst Market Uncertainties
Two optimistic events are stirring discussion in recent circles: the potential approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., and the impending block reward halving. The forthcoming halving, predicted to occur in about nine months, near April 24, 2024, will inevitably halve bitcoin miners’ revenues. Analysts at JPMorgan foresee financial challenges for bitcoin (BTC) miners if the crypto asset’s price and transaction costs fail to increase by that date.
“While bitcoin halving is seen as having a positive effect on the bitcoin price given the production cost acted historically as a floor, it poses a challenge for bitcoin miners,” JPMorgan’s senior analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou explained in a note to clients.
On July 16, 2023, a video surfaced from Plan B, an anonymous market analyst famed for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price model. In this video, he posits that bitcoin’s value could elevate to a range of $40,000 to $50,000 by the impending halving. A wave of criticism crashed over Plan B in 2022 when his S2F forecasts fell short. However, in this latest video, he employed the 200-week moving average as a tool to predict future price trends.
“The 200-week moving average increases currently at about $500 [per month], so nine times $500 will be $4,500,” Plan B explained in the video. “Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average right now is a little under $28,000, so $28,000 plus $4,000 is well [a] $32,000 dollars (200-week) moving average at the halving approximately.”
The anonymous analyst added:
And bitcoin would be above that right, and usually it would be like 50% above that, which would indicate a range of Bitcoin at the halving between $40,000 and $50,000.
Plan B also sparked intrigue on July 17, 2023, by launching a survey that posed the question: “Can bitcoin this halving cycle (before April 2024) make a new all time low (ATL, currently $15.5K) and/or a new all time high (ATH, currently $69K)?” At the time of writing, the poll has drawn more than 20,000 responses, with 37.9% predicting neither a new ATL nor a new ATH prior to April 2024.
Comparatively, Plan B’s pre-halving price forecast is modest. For example, Matrixport forecasts a halving price of $63,160, fueled by Blackrock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund filing and a marked rise in institutional interest.
What do you think about Plan B’s estimates? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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