Survivorship bias in crypto is HUGE and extremely dangerous - just because the gamble worked out for you, it's still stupid and irresponsible to tell others to risk everything

I know, the most popular post on this sub ever is called "You hear about the kid who put in $500 into a memecoin and made 100k, but you don't hear about the hundreds who put $1000 and are left with $0.1" - survivorship bias is not a new concept. But reading the comments on this sub, I feel like addressing it again, especially on an even more subjective level.

Absolutely every time someone tells others to be careful - don't invest more than you can afford to lose or something similar - some dude will come along and say "bullshit! I'm glad I didn't listen to this stupid advice! I bought Bitcoin with all my money in 2015 and am a multi-millionaire now!" Firstly, in 95% of cases that guy is lying, wishes he bought this early and pretends to have done so, so that people on the internet think he's cool (which is incredibly sad but not really the topic of this post). But disregarding this and talking about the remaining 5%: these guys are, sorry, incredibly stupid. Their line of logic? "It worked out for me in the past, so it's obvious it will work out for everyone in the future! You can't make money if you don't take risks!"

I probably don't even have to tell you how stupid that is. Firstly, just because it worked out for that person, doesn't mean it even worked out for everyone in that time period. Maybe they had an emergency they needed money for and had to sell at a loss because they overinvested in crypto and didn't have any fiat. Maybe they lost access to their crypto, maybe it wasn't even their fault. There are thousands of stories of people who have failed in the past. You just don't see them reported on the media this often, and they usually don't come here to boast - or they can't even come here because they literally didn't survive.

Secondly, just because something worked out in the past doesn't mean that it will work out in the future. I know, there are many deluded people on here who think it's guaranteed that BTC, ETH, or whatever their favorite coin is will definitely keep growing and growing and, with enough patience, you're guaranteed to make a profit. This is absolutely not the case. Once again, survivorship bias: "BTC has crashed so often and has always come back stronger, it's a fact that it will surpass its ATH in the future again" - I read stuff like that on here regularly. And it's such an absurd argument, everything survives all the hardships thrown at it - until it doesn't anymore. If your grandpa survived 5 heart attacks and then had another one - would you really be reassured by the fact he always survived until now or would you be even more worried that he has one again? I am absolutely not saying BTC, ETH or your favorite coin are dying right now (and I'm not, at all, talking about the current dip), but I am saying that they won't go up forever, and that we won't know when it reaches the top. Maybe it is in 3 years, maybe in 50, maybe it was 2 months ago.

Don't listen to those lucky idiots who think it worked out for them because they were so smart and that they weren't just, well, lucky. At least a few of them who got rich with crypto never diversified, I guarantee some of them will go broke in the future because they just keep everything in one coin with blind faith, because it worked out for them until now - and many coins will die. Be smarter than them, take risks if you want to, but always know it could fail and have a safety net.

​

tl;dr: don't listen to anyone saying they got rich with crypto purely because they are skilled/ smart and not mostly lucky; and especially never listen to anyone saying there's no risk in crypto.