 | I made a checklist with some of the common events people have often attributed to a sign of capitulation, along with historic signs of capitulation in crypto, and what many will consider "must happen" to reach capitulation. And of course, to make it more dramatic, I've dubbed them the 10 Horsemen of Capitulation. It's partly tongue-in-cheek, and not to be taken completely literally, but I will give it the more in-depth analysis I always give. Each gets a checkmark if we've reached it ✅ , an x if we didn't ❌, a question mark if it's unclear yet ❓ 1- A full cycle's crash. ~70%-80% Bitcoin drop. ❓Wait? "Why only as low as 70% and only as high as 80%?" you may wonder. Didn't the last bear market drop to nearly 84%? Yes, and the market before that by 86%, and before that over 95%. Do you see a pattern already? Also, the last bear market dropped lower due to a black swan event. And so did the one before that. In this cycle, the expectation was closer to 70% if we didn't run into a black swan event, but closer to roughly 80% if we run into one. And we did, and we already hit pretty close at 77%. We may yet go closer to or even a tiny bit above 80%. But if we do, we are almost there. It's very close, but doesn't get a checkmark, and gets a question mark instead. 2- Fear index reaches single digit. ✅The fear and greed index reached single digits a couple times in recent months. Going as low as 6. And again in the single digits at 8. Something we don't see too often. In the last bear market, it went as low as 5. 3- Things come in 3s. ✅This sounds more like superstition, but it's often said that things come in 3s, when talking about crashes and capitulations. We had the initial triple crash. Then the 3 major drops. The May crash from Luna. The June crash when macros were at their peak worst. The November crash on FTX. 4- Doomsday articles, and the main stream media back to running only the negative side of crypto. ✅ 5- The suicide hotline getting posted. ✅It was first stickied in the mod comment of the Luna megathread. But then posted several times. And again during the FTX fiasco. This is just from personal observation, but it does seem to have been posted more than in the lastbear market. Probably because of 2 black swan events. What I hadn't seen before was in-depth suicide hotline posts for multiple countries: 6- Crypto communities have a massive drop in interest. ✅Let's look at ours for example. Sub activity has tanked, and is even sometimes turning into r/buttcoin light. With more bearish conversation. We've had many days of sub activity going under 10K, daily getting under 4K comments, sometimes under 2k. When we used to get sometimes over 30k comments. And we are now getting our daily dose of FUD and doom and gloom posts. I sometimes think I accidentally opened r/buttcoin when I come on here. 7- The consensus is that we have further down to go, and is fear oriented. ✅During a capitulation very few people see the capitulation, and the general consensus is we will spiral out into much lower prices. Most people have lost hope, and don't see anything turning around any time soon. Bulls may still be around, but have become the minority in the media, and in the general conversation. In the last bear market, when we were already below $3.5k, the consensus wasn't "OK we've reached capitulation". Most people thought we were going lower. In the media, most articles were bearish. There were two predominant camps. Those who didn't think we would bottom until we hit at least $2K. And those who thought we were going far lower, even to $200. And right now the mood is heavily leaning on going lower, and for a long period of time. With two camps, those calling for $10K, and those saying we will go much lower than that. 8- Negative macros reaching their peak. ❓While we could plunge back into a recession, so far, it looks like the major negative macros have begun to cool off: -CPI rate has cooled off from 9.1 to 7.1 -GDP is back up in the positive and growth. -Oil prices have tumbled down from $122 to $75. -Shipping costs have gone down, and in some areas are back to pre-covid levels. -The fastest increase of housing cost was almost a year ago. It has now cooled off, and in some areas is going back down. And many of the fears we may still have today, are not as heated as they were earlier this year. 9- Jim Cramer going bearish on crypto. ✅ 10- The stock market reaching its capitulation and bottom. ❌I'm not convinced this has happened yet, so no checkmark. Granted, every stock bear market is a little different, and this bear market was coming from a pandemic, supply chain at a standstill, and money being printed. So I could be wrong. Also, crypto has increasingly been getting decoupled from stocks. So even if stocks capitulate, it doesn't completely guarantee crypto will find a new low. I'm leaning more on the narrative that they will. And this would cause a final drop in crypto. And we might even already see it happen very soon. [link] [comments] |
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