The Average Bear Market Length

Many people seem to believe that bear markets can last for years and years, luckily looking back at historical data we can clearly see that on average a bear market only lasts roughly 1 year.

2014 Bear Market: If we look at the pivot point where any downtrend ended (beyond the lowest low), and the uptrend started then the crypto winter lasted 405 days.

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2014 Bear Market

2018 Bear Market: If we go all the way from the breakout and confirmation 509 days.

2018 Bear Market

Conclusion:

Looking at the most stretched definition of a bear market, the 2018 Bear Market lasted only roughly 1 year and 5 months.

Crypto Landscape:

You must also consider past Bear Markets were also very different from what we are experiencing now, no one would have talked about Bitcoin or other Alt Coins during past winters, however now there is massive adoption taking place, blue chip companies jumping on-board and developing their own chains or building on existing chains, in general the industry is experiencing massive growth. This could potentially result in our current bear market ending much sooner than we anticipate.

Recession & War:

On the flip-side we also do have to keep in mind the current recession and also the war in Ukraine, which could hinder any potential speedup. It could potentially even result in a longer bear market than previously experienced.

Other Misconceptions:

The Bear Market will end when the next Bitcoin halving takes place, again looking at historical data this simply isn't true (using a more generous pivot definition of a bear market):

- The previous Bear Market ended 1 year and 3 months before the last halving.- The 2014 Bear Market ended 9 ½ months.

I hope this data helps break some of the common misconceptions of the duration of a traditional crypto bear market and also about halving.