 | Miners dread it. Anyone who says no is lying. Every four years, bitcoiners look forward to the halving. Let’s dive into historical data showing that history repeats itself – until 2024. Halving analysis ???? There will only ever be 32 halvings before all 21 million bitcoins are produced. While it is important for bitcoin, it is often feared by miners. The halving is one of the most anticipated events in bitcoin, but what is a “halving”? Every 210,000 blocks, roughly four years, the block reward gets cut in half - the halving. A halving is a 50% decrease in the new supply of bitcoin. Estimated on April 20, 2024, the block reward will go from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Instead of 900 new bitcoin each day, only 450 new bitcoin will be produced each day. This change in new supply has had interesting effects on the price of bitcoin in past halvings. On November 29, 2012, bitcoin underwent its first halving. The price of one bitcoin was $12.25, but it didn’t stay there. The price of bitcoin appreciated drastically as the new supply was cut in half For the first time ever, the market saw bitcoin get more scarce. In just one year, the price increased by 9116.33%. The next halving took place on July 9, 2016. The block reward got its first decimal, cutting from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Yet again, the price took off as the market adjusted to a decrease in new supply – this time increasing by 2907.90%. 2020 was anything but a normal year, so of course it had a bitcoin halving. The third took place on May 12, 2020 – right around the time the United States issued COVID stimulus checks. (Remember those odd times? ????) For the third straight time, the halving led to tremendous price growth – 561% in one year. Once again, the price of bitcoin reached a new all-time high in November 2021. Bitcoin had a cycle. For about a year following each halving, the price would go on a massive run. History repeated itself three times. Until 2024. Roughly one month before the 2024 halving, bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,750. Reaching an all-time high before the halving is unprecedented. On March 31st, bitcoin closed at roughly $70,300. This is the highest weekly, monthly, and quarterly close in history – also never seen a month before any halving. Results from previous cycles cannot be trusted. “This time is different.” But is it really? Wall Street is officially involved. In early 2024, 9 Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. This allows pension funds, 401Ks, retirement accounts, and just the everyday person to get exposure to (paper) bitcoin. These clients purchase the ETFs, then the ETFs purchase bitcoin. What happens on April 20, 2024, when this ratio effectively doubles going forward? (thanks for the excellent graphic u/BitwiseInvest ????) The only thing certain for this fourth halving is that the block reward will go from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Miners will see a 50% decrease in their revenue. Many of them may go underwater because of this. ALL MODELS ARE BROKEN. Models are useful tools for price predictions, but they are not perfect. Everyone can make educated guesses or assumptions about bitcoin’s price, but that is all they are guesses. Nobody knows for sure. The only thing that is certain is that society needs a borderless, decentralized, digital money. Those who continue to study bitcoin, not models, will thrive. (Perhaps the Dune Model is the only informative way to make bitcoin price predictions. When is the next one coming out?) An immediate, 50% decrease in block rewards is obviously troubling for all miners. Miners will do everything at their disposal to stay afloat – use firmware to increase efficiency, access funds quicker and more frequently, and lower management costs. Any miners looking to improve margins can benefit from Braiins stack. Industry-leading Braiins OS+ allows users of both Braiins OS+ and Braiins Pool to pay zero pool fees. Braiins OS+ offers efficiency-boosting tools help miners mine more bitcoin at any power output and maximize uptime. Braiins Pool offers lightning payouts, providing users with instant, zero-fee payments. Let us know if you have any questions ???? MEME TIME We know how uncertainty is uneasy, having mined since 2010, but let’s keep spirits high - bitcoin is genius money. Buy orders will flood the market like Saruman’s Uruk-Hai at Helm’s Deep. Or will they? Again, nothing is certain. Those who stay focused on learning will thrive. Stay humble and stack stats, but don’t be afraid to celebrate the halving. There will only ever be 32 of them. THE END. Nobody can predict the future, but that just gives us all an equal playing field. For a more in-depth look at previous halvings and this coming halving, check out our newest blog post ???? https://braiins.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-2024-historical-data-expectations-fears-tips [link] [comments] |
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