The bullish case for Reddit Avatars - it smells like capitulation and it's only going to take a spark

Reddit avatars are fucking great, I think most of us agree, they were probably the most exciting part of the bear market for our board. Right now community engagement is extremely low, the project fundamentals that got us all excited haven't changed, adoption has increased and onboarding has shot up drastically - but none of this has been reflected in price action and volume. People are bored, and that's usually a sign you're nearing capitulation.

We've almost certainly got a native marketplace coming, we have been crabbing in price since mid November, volume is at an all time low, and even gen 1 bluechip is trading at or below the levels it was prior to the release of Season 2.

There's been no large record sales and the Superbowl avatars went exactly the same way as the World Cup avatars, in that because they are so broadly distributed they set people up with vaults so they can buy in the future, but they don't get them excited about the project as there's nothing unique to the user, and no luck involved.

We're finally starting to see a divergance between the volume and floors on Season 1 and 2, the market cap dominance of season 1 is holding steady at about 3x, but if that number gets higher and the social activity drops then I think we're poised for a disgusting breakout when season 3 hits. It will also pump volume as people try to liquidate for funds to buy gen 3 speculatively, and power users with liquidity jump on those buying opportunities.

Divergance in blue chip and gen 1/gen 2 shows people are being conservative

The last major spike was the release of Season 2 which lead to a huge gold rush as people tried to get into opportunities they'd missed the first time around, particularly crypto twitter. There's a huge swathe of those guys who feel like they missed the boat on Season 1 and 2, and a bunch of well known users who are now holding high tier avatars and will be looking to build hype around the release of season 3.

The overall market cap is now lower than just Season 1 was in October of last year, prior to the release of Season 2; and it's not just marketcap, it's volume. We're doing like 1% of the trading volume we had at that time. That's bad, but in some ways it's necessary given how immature the market was. The volume starts to centralise into the bluechip holdings and they provide liquidity to traders with floor prices that are much closer to asking prices. That's what's happened up the top now, it gives people somewhere to move their money to in the ecosystem that's more reliable and still gives them exposure to the project. Money flows out from the undesireable avatars and consolidates up the top. That means all those other avatars become cheap as hell, and suddenly they represent a buying opportunity for new users who wouldn't want to jump in with half an ETH, and people who just genuinely want the avatars for their profiles but wouldn't spend ridiculous amounts.

These conditions are paired with an overall market in recovery, some massive developments on Polygon, and a slew of big sales in the NFT space, including excitement around ordinals. When these things happen whales have liquidity available to find new projects, and I think this is genuinely the best project in the space.

Now, here is the truly bullish fomo case - imagine what happens when Reddit go hard on these, they're looking to IPO and they've made it very, very clear that blockchain is a huge part of their strategy. When demand floods in because they've thrown the resources of a billion dollar company behind it, and this is the unique ownership percentage of your season 1 bluechip, what happens to prices?

Show me another NFT project with this kind of unique ownership rate

There's nobody looking to sell, the weaker hands have been shaken out long ago, and you're now dealing with people who are personally attached to their avatars and didn't sell when others were exiting. This project has shown it can shine even in a bear market when people are scared about putting food on the table, I'm excited to see what happens when we hit a bull.