The case against a bullish halving.

I am still learning about bitcoin, if anything I say is wrong please correct me.

After the last halving we saw a major bullrun. 6k to 69k. Optimistically we could expect then, assuming a bottom is around 16k, a ~180k price. Or even higher.

However even though a halving reduces rewards by 50%. That 50% value is 50% as impactful as the last cut.

50 btc -> 25 btc -> 12.5 btc -> 6.25 btc … etc

This should result in a increasing concave down curve in bitcoin price. Which I believe is well modeled by resources such as the bitcoin rainbow.

This means that likely the halving of bitcoin will result in a far lower return for those who hope to sell at the top.

I believe that the reason for the large bull run previously is mass distrust of government and fiat currency as a whole.

Your probably saying “well no shit”. The importance of this observation is to understand that the key to long term price appreciation of bitcoin is actually mass adaptation and not the capped bitcoin supply.

Unlike the limited supply, adaptation of bitcoin is not mathematically guaranteed. There are many obstacles we still have to overcome. Such as ease of access and government regulation. We have made great strides, such as lightning network.

time in the market > timing the market