The Coinbase and Binance Effect on Newly Listed Coins, namely MOONs

It is truly a momentous occasion when Kraken listed our very own Moons. I believe everyone in this sub has been running on hopium high since the listing. Now that Kraken (a huge respectable exchange) has listed MOONs, it would not be long before Coinbase and Binance follow suit. I did some research on this and found something called the Coinbase and Binance Effect. Hopefully from this, we can sort of estimate the price of MOONs when it is listed on Coinbase and Binance.

Disclaimer: I am not an analyst and this is not financial advice.

The Coinbase Effect

To start off, the Coinbase Effect refers to the price increase when a new coin is listed on Coinbase. The data available in 2021 suggests that coins that are newly listed on Coinbase experience an average of 91% increase in value over a 5 day period**,** which exceeds price actions when compared to other exchanges such as Binance, Kraken, Gemini etc. They also mentioned that there is a wide distribution of price actions that range from -32% to 645%. However, we know that coins can go for much higher that breaks the median. One such example is the memecoin BALD, which recorded a 40,000% growth in 48 hours when it was listed on Coinbase.

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https://preview.redd.it/a6vx5rs7v8hb1.png?1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=5adb1bed5ba4ab400bfc939416dc1008be939930

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The Binance Effect

For more recent data, the Binance Effect was quantified earlier this year in January. For comparison, the Binance Effect recorded a 41% increase in price in the first 24 hours, followed by a 24% increase on day 3. Over a 30-day period, tokens gain 73% on average. In the same article, they also quoted a market analyst at financial services firm at Conotoxia saying:

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Grzegorz Drozdz, a market analyst at financial-services firm Conotoxia, estimated that in 2022 the price of around two-thirds of all newly launched tokens rose on Binance. The price of optimism (OP), for example, skyrocketed by more than 300% shortly after its debut on Binance.
“It seems that we could expect a greater upward reaction after the Binance listing in 2023, confirming the transition from the 'Coinbase effect' to the 'Binance effect,'” he added.

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Moons listing on Coinbase and Binance

Obviously, nobody knows shit about anything in crypto. However, that doesn't stop us from applying the average increase in token prices to MOONs when they are listed on Coinbase and Binance.

MOONs price: $0.506 as of writing this post.

In case of Coinbase listing, 91% increase for MOONs will give us $0.966 in a 5-day period.

In case of Binance listing, 65% increase for MOONs will give us $0.835 in a 3-day period.

Therefore, MOONs to $1 is very possible.

This estimate takes the assumption that the price increase is smack dab on the average and does not take into account the cumulative/additive effect of multiple major exchange listings.

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TLDR; MOONs are most likely going to increase in price during Coinbase and Binance listing (duh?) and you can estimate the price increase using statistical data. In a bull market, these effects will likely be amplified and the moon is the limit. This is made for fun and not actually financial advice.