 | The HODL method is a method of investment strategy in which a person buys and holds regardless of market upturn or downturn. Usually holding in relation to a specific time period or indefinitely. Often times people have plans to HODL until retirement or HODL for 10 years. HODLing has been regarded as the most soundproof investment because when you HODL you don't think about price movement because dollar value is meaningless until the HODL date has been reached i.e. retirement. HODLing has consistently beaten the best algorithmic trading bots in the long term and is the best hedge against day trading/gambling risk. Yes, I know, this is what everyone on this sub has been saying this whole time. "HODL HODL HODL!!!!!" "THE PRICE WILL ONLY GO UP WITH EACH HALVING!!!!" YES OH MY GOD IM AWARE OF WHAT YOU ALL HAVE BEEN SAYING ABOUT HODLING!!!! Let me introduce you to the HODL Method Hypothesis that literally vindicates us with math! There has been a recent market hypothesis by twitter user (@/therationalroot) linked here (https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875251399331845?cxt=HHwWisCovdqFl9QpAAAA) that states since so many people are HODLing BTC it has and will created a naturally illiquid market that will cause more people to HODL, thus creating a parabolic rise in rarity and illiquidity of BTC. From the abstract of the hypothesis: " The “HODL model hypothesis” is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset’s illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence. Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as bitcoin’s digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036." The method goes on to state that BTC has already crossed the inflection point of illiquidity and will not be able to drop below it since the rate of new issuance will go down parabolically and the rate of HODLing will increase parabolically. Rational Root goes on to explain that Illiquid supply as a percentage to the circulation supply will grow in parabolic fashion. Thus increasing digital scarcity, which will in turn drive investors to HODL harder and drive the use case further into a store of value. " as a result illiquid supply of BTC will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036. " He adds to the thread stating, liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten in the coming years causing the illiquid supply to grow, leaving less BTC on the market to acquire for trade. New waves of demand constantly enter the market every day and the declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases. The model that Rational Root created predicts, " a conservative estimate of BTCs available supply following the growth curve above. Since Illiquid supply shares nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for Bitcoin's price to follow an inverse S-curve. " The HOLD Model leverages the inflection and end point to create an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply. Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, The HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards. With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply. The chart shows high increases in price at the beginning of BTC life and then moderate price increases near the third halvings inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow so long as the HODL method of investment is carried through. So anyway, I highly recommend giving the OP twitter user some love on his amazing thread. TL;DR: Our half brain hivemind investment mentality of HODLing has actually sparked a massively and increasingly illiquid market that will create a parabolic decrease in avaiable supply with each BTC halving. So long as new investors use BTC as a store of value and HODL we can only expect a parabolic price shift upward. [link] [comments] |
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