The misconception of "TA is astrology for men", and why you are probably sabotaging yourself by thinking that.

The more tools and information you put at your disposal, the better you can make informed decisions.

TA is about that, giving yourself an edge and better understanding, beyond fundamentals. By really understanding what the market is currently doing by looking at the actions of traders.

In a market like crypto where everything is focused on just Bitcoin, and where nearly 80% of the transactions are done using bots, it's really a tool that you can't ignore.

Fundamentals alone is not the sole driver of markets. You have to understand both sides of the market.

TA is also not about predicting an exact price or time, it's about probabilities. So that over time, if you stack the probabilities in your favor, you come out on top more often than not.

Same principle you use when playing poker.

There's no way to know for sure if you have the winning hand, but you can look at the probabilities to make a better decision.

If you're new in poker, and ignore the number of cards in a deck and probabilities of each hands, you are not using all the information at your disposal.

Imagine you hold a pair of 7 in your hands, and here's what's on the table:

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https://preview.redd.it/axea5imf1zc71.png?669&format=png&auto=webp&s=287e3987cfb98d2282ea0e7ffc4dfaa8f36b424a

Coming in as a new player, who hasn't researched the mechanism of the game and isn't fully analyzing the probabilities, you might think "cool, I have something" or "I've seen people win with a pair of 7 before". ALL IN.

But someone might tap on you shoulder and tell you, you are playing against 9 players, and there's a potential flush on the table. There's also always a chance of a full house when there's a pair on the table. That's someone providing you a little piece of TA.

But some Youtuber might tap on your shoulder and say something like, "this guy across the table has gone all in 4 times in a row, and has won those 4 hands. He's bound to run out of luck now". That's someone providing bad TA.

There lies really the issue with TA. Any moron can go online and provide TA. That's why so much of it is bullshit and plain wrong.

Typically, the main issue as to why people get TA wrong, is not that TA in itself is wrong, but most people have a hard time with the mechanism of probabilities, because it's a lot of abstract concepts and sometimes even counter-intuitive.

There's also the misunderstanding that it's about prediction and an absolute outcome. And forgetting that it's only as good as the assumption and statistical sampling it's based on. And in the end just probabilities.

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https://preview.redd.it/pck67tu94zc71.png?629&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf252cdd2d93344d412eaf079bb1b6094a0a3e51

There is also the assumption that it's pointless to try to predict anything, since it's not possible to predict anything.

That's not entirely true either. It's not so much that it's impossible to know what will happen, so much that it's often too complex to predict the future.

We predict the future on a daily basis without realizing it. When someone throws a ball at you, you don't go "this ball could go anywhere", you can calculate the trajectory and the timing to catch it in your hand at the precise right moment. Because you knew where it was going based on your learning and calculations.

Simple events like that can be show that prediction is possible.

Predicting a market deals with too many balls thrown all over the world, and not enough data on what's happening to each one.

Nothing is random in the universe, and there's no such thing as chance. Everything is action and reaction. In theory, everything is predictable. It's just too complex, and you usually don't have enough information.

The less information you have, the worst your TA is going to be. But you only need your TA to give you better odds than 50/50 in the long run to come out on top.