The optimism during this bear market is different, at least. Will less people buy into the hype when BTC touches an all-time high, because they will have even more past evidence that ATHs won’t continue forever afterwards to cycle again?

And what does this change? Are future cycle tops too good to be true because of our knowledge of them?

In 2023 people seem much more certain that the market will cycle up again [compared to 2019]. You, me, whales. Does that optimism, as a variable, change anything? Not everyone can make money the next bull if everyone that will invest already has.

Will we see a lower cycle top due to this? A shorter bull, a sustained bull? What stands to happen if there is more certainty of an impending bull - is it too good to be true, since seemingly everyone “knows”?

This is something that has been lingering with me lately, and wanted to know your thoughts.

I’ve been in since the beginning of 2017, and when that bull run was over, 2019 seemed uncertain of the next bull, quiet, bearish, more pessimistic. Not as many people were locked into the idea of repeating cycles as they are today.

Nevertheless, the market cycled and the bull run came again in 2021.

So, many, many more people are expecting that same thing to happen again in 2024/2025.

Which, it likely will, but to what end?

This year, time-wise, is akin to 2019, currently tracking the next halving that will occur in 2024. And more people are ready this time - so what changes?