The Second drop of Reddit Avatars might not be a great investment you think it's going to be

So The first drop of Reddit Avatars is all the rage, some users have been able to make 100X or 1,000X their original investment. The first Reddit Avatars are pretty close to selling out completely and everybody is eagerly awaiting the Second drop (if there is one) to buy them all up and repeat the great success that people have had so far, only there are a few possible issues you should consider before throwing all your money into Reddit Avatars.

The First collection took a couple of months to sell out.

Released on July 7th, Reddit collectible avatars took a while to gain speed. Fishy Foustling the highest sale for a Reddit avatar on OpenSea so far (6 ETH) didn't sell out until August 26th, almost five weeks after launch. see the list below for dates of the first collections to sell out

• The Assembler #170 - July 14, 2022, 1:23 a.m.
• B•E•N•O•T•A•F•R•A•I•D #777 - July 14, 5:29 a.m.
• The Hands #101 - July 14, 5:47 p.m.
• Diamond Diablo #100 - July 15, 4:38 a.m.
• The Eyes #1001 - July 16, 4:35 p.m.
• Golden Hands #100 - July 16, 6:10 p.m.
• The Mouths #200 - July 18, 8:28 a.m.
• Yami #100 - July 21, 4:30 p.m.
• Gummy #1 - July 25, 2:25 a.m.*
• Pounce Patrol #100 - July 28, 2:34 p.m.
• Yamata #1001 - July 29, 2:38 p.m.**
• Julia Jewels #150 - Aug. 9, 2:50 p.m.
• Battery Bot #100 - Aug. 12, 11:53 p.m.
• Kitsune #200 - Aug. 17, 9:07 p.m.

The Collections above are also the current avatars going for the most on OpenSea, with some like The Assembler or Diamond Diablo having very few listed.

Once something is seen as a collectible it quickly loses value

Once people start to see opportunity's to make money on certain collectibles, they quickly lose value as either to many are horded by buyers or the company making them releases to many which floods the market.

Examples of this are Beanie baby's which started off as regular toys with a limited supply, people started collecting them and reselling for huge amounts on the secondary market then the company produced so many and the general consumers bought up as many as possible to resell that both the markets quickly became over saturated and collapsed.

another example that we can look at are baseball cards and comic books, the ones worth the most are the ones that nobody thought to collect. first editions where the majority of the copies have been destroyed or lost are worth the most. Newer releases where people purchase them simply for the act of collecting or reselling don't reach the same level of value.

The First Avatars to sell out were bought by people who wanted to use them.

The collections above that sold out the quickest were not bought up by NFT speculators wanting to turn a profit but by people who genuinely liked the art and wanted to use the avatar as their profile picture, this limited the total amount that ended up on the secondary market and increased the value due to scarcity.

The collections that have sold out in the last week due to the hype are being bought up by speculators wanting to turn a profit, single accounts hold dozens of each avatar. This has caused these later collections to sell at lower prices for longer and possibly never reach the higher value of the other avatars.

I could be completely wrong about everything above

Other NFT collections are bought up with the sole purpose to be resold and some people seem to make a nice amount of profit off of them, so these could in time sell for large amounts of ETH simply because they are the first collection (maybe even the second collection). Reddit avatars also have some real uses as they can be used to customize your avatar by interchanging different parts and pieces to build a unique avatar that represents you. Another thing to consider is that 48K avatars in a userbase of 430 million is actually a pretty low amount, if only 1% of users really wanted to adopt these it would still be a potential market of 4.3 million buyers.

I'm actually quite bullish on Reddit avatars gaining value in time and becoming one if not the biggest NFT collections available, but at the same time wanted to share some of my concerns.

^{Not financial advice, remember to invest only what you are comfortable losing}