The simplest investment thesis for why bitcoin will go up in the next year: 1) Bail-ins 2) Bank insolvency issues / Bank runs. 3) Feds Turning the money printer back on. Any one of these 3 is almost guaranteed to happen.

Of all three of the scenarios laid out in the title of this thread, one has yet to take place (bail-ins, at least in America anyway) and 2 have already taken place. Silicon valley bank went out of business, almost sinking a few creditors with them, but they got bailed out by a federally accredited insurance fund.

The third point in the title of this thread is just a guarantee that it will happen sooner or later, the only question is "How frequently, how much, and what amounts?"

The thing a lot of people don't know is that bitcoin is essentially a sponge for excess liquidity entering the market, or at least that is my perspective.

Booms and busts are a regular market function, the question is "where do you want to place your money and why?"

EDIT: To simplify articulation of the points made in the OP- we jumped from 20k to 28k earlier this year when silicon valley bank collapsed. When a bail-in takes place, because the nature of a bail-in is possibly worse than that of a bank run, it could cause higher jumps because people realize the money in their bank accounts could be stolen by the banks at their whim. Turning the money printer back on (whether it is "economic stimulus" or "quantitative easing") causes a slow-burn in upward price action because it could cause inflation later.