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The story of Bitcoin: part 2. Hear me out:

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I have an understanding of Bitcoin that seems to contradict the statues queue. I believe it can be predicted and it can grow in the next 10 years in the same way it grew in the last 10. Not because of the type of analysis on trading view and crypto twitter. But because an analysis that aligns more with Giovanni Santos's power law based theory on bitcoin.

Here's my stance: Viewing Bitcoin through technical lenses that are foreign to its story makes me sad. S-curves, scarcity, supply/demand, TA schools. They all miss the bigger picture. Which is that Bitcoin is a cultural trend. A virus, a living organism that grows in time. An entropy governed by a clockchain. And so, it can't be understood nor predicted by the usual trading tools. Not on a macro timeview. You'll miss on orders of magnitude of price appreciation withe the tools shilled by influencers.

For example, you might have seen charts with TA lines trying to catch the bottom of a bear market, And you might've followed their analysis only for it to fail miserably (is Capo still solvent?) . Because the actual macro bottom was simply the price of Bitcoin's cost of mining. Which is a feature of Bitcoin as a cultural trend and a living organism.

This view of Bitcoin's nature enabled me to predict the macro top and bottom for 2 halving cycles so far, and i tried to explain it in this post a few years ago where I signaled the top and bottom range. Although my predictions were correct, i ended up only arguing with a naysayer in that post. Hearing nothing of value. I think it's because claiming predictability is inflammatory. Especially when not articulated and presented. So here's my second attempt:

The story of Bitcoin: part 2

- Bitcoin is a Cultural Phenomenon

  1. Cultural Revolution: Bitcoin represents a shift in how people perceive money, value, and trust. It challenges traditional financial systems and promotes a decentralized, peer-to-peer model. This has cultural implications, fostering a sense of empowerment and autonomy among its users.
  2. Community and Ideology: The Bitcoin community is driven by a shared ideology that values decentralization, privacy, and financial sovereignty. This ideology is almost a cultural movement, attracting individuals who resonate with these principles.
  3. Narrative and Storytelling: The story of Bitcoin, from its mysterious creation by Satoshi Nakamoto to its adoption and impact, is compelling and rich with narratives. This story is part of what makes Bitcoin a cultural artifact, as much as it is a technological innovation.

- Bitcoin is a Living Organism

  1. Growth and Adaptation: Bitcoin has evolved over time, adapting to challenges and growing in ways that resemble a living organism. Its network grows, adapts, and becomes more resilient, much like biological systems.
  2. Decentralized Evolution: Unlike centralized entities, Bitcoin’s development is driven by a decentralized network of contributors and users. This decentralized evolution allows it to be more adaptive and resilient, akin to how organisms evolve through natural selection.
  3. Entropy and Order: Bitcoin introduces a unique concept of order through its blockchain technology. The idea of a "clockchain" that governs entropy is a poetic way to describe the balance between order (the blockchain) and the inherent entropy of decentralized, peer-to-peer transactions.

- Viewing Bitcoin Beyond Technical Analysis

  1. Societal Impact: Bitcoin's impact on society goes beyond technical analysis. It has the potential to reshape how we understand and interact with money, potentially leading to significant socio-economic changes.
  2. Cultural Integration: Bitcoin is becoming integrated into various aspects of culture, from art to politics. It’s being discussed in mainstream media, influencing political discourse, and even inspiring artistic creations.
  3. Philosophical Implications: Bitcoin also raises important philosophical questions about trust, value, and the nature of money. These questions are deeply tied to cultural and humanistic aspects, transcending mere technical or financial considerations.

So what is my conclusion in all of this? 130k is the next natural macro top and it's predicted based on an understanding of Bitcoin the aligns with my thoughts above. Why 130k? it used to be because of my power of 2 based predictive idea. But now it's because of Giovanni Santos's calculator that give you the price of bitcoin X after a number of days since genesis . I still think that the price can bubble into 260k but i won't miss much if it did so I'm sticking to trading for 130k.

You also can simply take the conclusion that bitcoin can't reach 500k or 1MM in this cycle based on my idea and the linked calculator. It'll be useful to ground your targets in reality for when we reach the macro euphoria phase and hear about super cycles and stock to flow dots claiming further upside movement.

Lastly, i implore you to consider playing with that calculator, and to take a look at Giovanni's work. Because i think that more people need to view Bitcoin for what it is to really benefit financially from it. Which is needed for the expensive times we live in presently.

submitted by /u/Nic3up
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