Key facts to consider -
- Prior to the crash 40% of UST was locked in Anchor with no unlock period(?) - however other staking protocols have an unlock period of multiple days to get your UST back.
- The price of Terra is at $15.45 with a marketcap of 5.7B
- The depeged marketcap of UST is 13.68B if the price was pegged the marketcap would be 16.52B.
- If you want to get out of UST you have to burn $1 of UST and convert it to $1 of Terra to then sell.
What does all this mean? 16.52B is currently locked in an asset and was designed to be sold in the form of an asset that currently has a market cap of 5.7B 4.2B.
I get Terra people will say that's the self correcting algorithm but if a further run on UST continues, the price of Terra will continue to crash as more people burn UST and get/sell Terra to get out any money that they can.
Unless people continue to buy Terra in anticipation of a recovery the 5.7B marketcap will drain faster than the UST marketcap and even if they do a bloated supply of Terra could still lead to a lower price
The remaining people will be left with UST and a worthless crypto to convert it to. It doesn't matter if you can convert it to Terra as the supply surges and the price drops and nobody wants to buy it.
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What we could potentially see is the supply of Terra swell and the price drop as the marketcap stays somewhat solvent assuming you can continue to transfer 1 to 1 from UST to Terra regardless of the price. In this scenario the people transferring last will get the most Terra but in a crypto that has it's price cut drastically. As the UST in total gets transferred into Terra and people aren't buying Terra the price would then begin an uncontrolled death spiral.
However what I’m not sure about is how the discounted UST applies into the 1-1 conversion
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TLDR - A crypto with a 5.7B marketcap is supporting 16.52B in a stablecoin - Supply of Terra is going to swell, marketcap might not drop as quickly as UST gets transferred into Terra adding supply - Price of Terra will continue to nosedive.
Edit: In response to that's not how it works people will burn Luna to get UST or will buy UST to regain the $1 peg. Answer the question - Why would someone buy a stablecoin that is supported by an underlying asset that is 1/3rd of the value of said stablecoin.
Edit 2: If I understand this last part correctly, you can buy $.82 of UST and convert it to $1 an amount of Terra (there is a fee for the conversion also no guarantee it will be close to what you spend on it by the time you receive it back and sell it as Terra though since the price continues to drop - and where exchanges allow you to buy/sell/send UST) - This is supposed to be the self correcting part of UST - So the price of Terra will continue to drop as arbitrage traders attempt to take profit on the discrepancy between the two assets - so long as the peg is off. (I'm not 100% on this though, so if I'm wrong someone please correct me)
Which will likely cause further selling of Terra and a further offset from the total value of UST compared to Terra - which will make UST look even worse as a stablecoin. At some point if Terra continues to fail - UST will stop looking like a stablecoin honestly the discrepancy stated in the title should already be a huge red flag - to outside investors (even if the peg is regained and it would then also risk collapse) In essence this self correcting mechanism could break the camels back as it suffocates Terra.
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