The whole energy FUD will soon be a thing of the past, here is why

tl;dr in about 4 years we will have as much solar power as all other electricity producers combined. In 6 years it's more than all energy production combined. Bitcoin miners among other high dynamic consumers will be welcome everywhere. The energy FUD will be gone.

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As you may have heard a million times, people are notoriously bad with grasping exponential growth. This is another such tail.

In an article back in 2011 the futurologist Ray Kurzweil made the claim that when you look at the development of solar power, it shows an exponential growth over the last 20 years. It doubled roughly every two years. By simply extrapolating, he then made the prediction that is would take just another 8 doubling or 16 years until we have as much solar power as the whole energy demand at the time.

We are now 12 years later, how did that prediction fair? Not that bad actually!

It is expected that in 2023 newly built solar power will amount to 413 GW (source). Which is significant, because it matches exactly the combined output of all nuclear power plants world wide (source). According to IEA this is about 10% of produced electricity. According to Wikipedia, it's around 4% of all energy consumption.

If this numbers are even somewhat correct, this means it is actually pretty much on track. If this keeps up, and everything looks like it does, in just 4 years from now, we will have as much solar energy available as any other form of electricity combined. In 6 years it's more than all other energy forms combined.

And it will not stop there.

That means we should now start to see the effects of this more and more, as it's now so much solar coming online, it should soon completely flood the market.

If this happens, the whole discussion about energy will completely shift, as there is now suddenly an abundance of clean energy available. Highly dynamic consumers like Bitcoin miners who can be used to regulate the demand side of things will be in very high demand. They will be highly sought after and the whole narrative will completely flip over, as we already have seen it start in the last two years.

But the most astonishing thing to me in all of this is that no one sees this coming. People are still in complete panic mode in regards to energy security. For me it's pretty hard to read this numbers and actually integrate them into my outlook about the coming years in reality. It feels extremely unrealistic, yet that is unmistakably what the numbers say.