This week it will be 4 months since since Bitcoin dropped to $17.7K, and there still hasn't been a new low.

Bitcoin has been stuck in crab land.

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The last 4 months since the dip to $17.7K.

What happened in 2018?

After finally breaking below $6K, Bitcoin hit its lowest point in that market cycle at $3.2k. Then crabbed for over 3 months.

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The 2018/19 market bottom and breakout (not visually on the same scale as the previous chart)

It took 3 months and 18 days of crabbing before any significant reversal (the very first big green candle).

After 4 months and 27 days, the market had a full breakout, back above $6K (which would be the equivalent of returning above $30K in the current market) and ended its downward trend, had a sustained uptrend, thus ending the bear market.

Keep in mind, no two market cycles has ever been exactly the same. But trader behavior, and supply and demand, do have similar general patterns.

What type of bad news still failed to bring Bitcoin lower, in the last 4 months?

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1- Escalation of nuclear war threat in the war in Ukraine.

2- Worldwide recession going deeper.

3- Stock markets continuing to drop deeper into bear territory, with many tech stocks crashing hard.

4- High inflation worldwide, and higher CPI than expected last week.

5- China's economy imploding.

6- Energy crisis in Europe.

7- Rumors of looming Mt Gox payments of around 140,000 BTC (many people thought it would drop after August).

8- Fed ramping up their rate hike.

9- Gold dropping to an 18 months low.

10- DXY hitting a 20 year high.

11- The big Ethereum merge, creating uncertainty.

12- Monkey pox outbreak.

13- Threats of war between China and Taiwan during another escalation in the Sino-Taiwanese crisis.

14- Binance BNB smart chain hack.

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None of that was able to bring the price lower.

What more would it take then?

How has the price managed to hold up, here's my theory:

In short, supply and demand.

I think most of the people who would panic sell have panic sold during the Luna crash, and when Bitcoin crashed.

This took out an enormous chunk of the selling pressure.

We've had bad news since January (not to mention Covid, Brexit, killer wasps, etc from the previous year).

Traders may be getting bear fatigue and jaded by the same old bad news. And doomsday panic has already been in big part priced in.

I also think that the long term 4 year cycles are still a prevailing force in this market.

There's also been a lot of good news within the market in terms of adoption and tech development.

Just in the last 2 weeks, we had news of adoption from Google, Samsung, MasterCard, Societe General, etc...

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What's your theory for Bitcoin holding up through sci-fi movie levels of macro economic bad news?