Time in the market is better than timing the market

I see videos of Plan B talking about how the best returns would have come from buying 6 months before the halving, selling 18 months after the halving, and then repeating that over and over again.

He claims doing this leads to far greater returns than just holding.

Here is why he is wrong and why holding is the superior strategy.

1) He doesnt take into account capital gains tax consequences from selling. When you sell you lose around 20% to 30% of all your gains on average depending on what country you live in.

2) Very smart investors have said after you take profits it becomes psychologically very hard to reinvest those profits back in again. No one wants to let go of profits they have locked in. This means most people would not be able to reinvest all the proceeds from selling their bitcoin, at best they might put half back in.

3) What happens when hyperbitcoinization and the bitcoin super cycle kicks in and there is no retracement? You would have sold what you thought was the top, but it kept on rising and you wont be able to make yourself buy back in at a higher price until its obvious the price is never going back down to where you sold, so to rebuy would mean getting half the bitcoin you once had.

For all these reasons combined simply holding is far more profitable than selling 18 months after the halving and rebuying again 6 months before the halving.

TLDR; at the end of the day you will have far more bitcoin if you just hold through all the volatility instead of trying to buy and sell based on the halving.