TODAY IS THE DAY. "The fornication" has finally begun.

Today is a huge and very sexual day for Bitcoin, but first a little background (skip ahead if you don't care).

The stock to flow (S2F) multiple shows the stock to flow model price compared to actual close price for a given day (read more here). The two S2F model price predictions use 10 days of bitcoin production estimated forward and, 463 days of actual production to measure scarcity and predict a value or price. Each line of the below chart represents the current BTC price's multiple of those price predictions. A value of 1 means the actual price matches the model prediction. Boring, yes. The point is, they have a rocky relationship with each other.

Anyway, following every halving, the relationship between the 463 day and the 10 day wiggly lines sours, and the 10 day drops away after they are kicked out of the house. The actual price is suddenly way below the 10 day model price, and takes a couple of years to recover.

Then, a magical moment happens. A moment of greatness that we in the know refer to as "THE FORNICATION". This is the moment that the two lines finally reunite again, lost lovers rekindling the flame, and begin to have intercourse.

They hold hands and kiss and roll around as the intensity builds to the inevitable market climax and the sweet release of the final blow-off. Once this process is started it cannot be stopped until the Bitgasm is achieved at a much higher multiple than the model prediction.

You can see the moment "The Fornication" begins, and the following blow-off in 2013 and 2017, and"The Fornication" NOW, TODAY, IN 2021:

Value of 1 means the actual price matches the model prediction. We have always overshot on the climax by a multiple of that prediction.

You can also see this beautiful and slightly X-rated moment clearly today on the actual stock to flow model:

https://preview.redd.it/o416gq45doy61.png?1911&format=png&auto=webp&s=b52466723296c1afa9cb10c7b755e95ad1bf7dfd

We've waited a long time for these two to get back together, and I expect the same level of passion this time around too.

I hope you will join me in celebrating the great day of "The Fornication", and that the upcoming final blow-off showers you with bits...? riches...? bitches...? heh.

Edit: Fornication to climax has taken between 2-4 months on the previous cycles, and don't expect this to be a smooth ride...!

Edit Edit: The 463 day model price in the lower chart rises to about $100k to meet the 10 day for this cycle. Overshooting to a multiple of 2 on the top graph puts us at $200k per BTC. Not a prediction or advice, just pointing it out.

Edit Edit Edit: Yes, the multiple appears to be diminishing each cycle. Using the highest price of the prediction:

• Last cycle peaked in 2017 at a multiple of 3.42 ($19,345 vs a model prediction of $5,649).
• The cycle before that in 2013 peaked at a multiple of 9.3 ($1,220 vs a model prediction of $130), but actually 17.2 if you go by the correct dates.
• 2011 had a multiple of 32 ($26.15 vs a model price of $0.80).