We can perform any type of analysis we want. There's only one thing to look out for until recovery.

And that's the start of the next credit cycle.

I will try and keep this simple and brief.

The economy works in cycles. It will have its highs and lows, the shits and the greats. The goal is to keep a long term productivity trend. That's it.

The fact is this: We have been in a bull run since the 2010's. GDP growth has been positive (except for the quarters affected by the pandemic), interest rates have been low, borrowing was fueling the economy, assets were booming. The party had to be stopped (or paused) at some point, but when the pandemic was announced, we kicked the can down the road with money printing. This was the smart choice, you can't have a pandemic and a recession, no matter how you slice it.

So what now? Inflation is high so rates are increasing right? Inflation should take about a year to drop from its peak (if all goes well). Its measured on a YoY basis, that's why it will take a while. For now, it's only decelerating.

What does that mean?

This means that interest rates will keep going up, borrowing will dry, asset prices will have to drop until inflation goes down. It's simple. The fiat currency system is built on the basis of inflation. But it needs to be kept moderate.

The truth is that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies never existed through a recession (which we are in one now). So, to provide an educated guess along with some mild hopium, here's what I think will happen:

1. Cryptocurrencies will follow the market for the next 9-12 months.

2. Inflation cools down and starts dropping around mid 2023. Depending on the war situation & energy prices

3. Interest rates will start going down by the end of 2023 IF inflation starts approaching the 2-4% mark. - recovery period

4. Economy starts going through it's expansion period again, business will begin to borrow more and grow. Risk on assets (tech & growth stocks and cryptocurrencies) - expansion period

5. Bitcoin halves around March 2024. This will kick off the next bull run IF steps 2-3 go as planned.

Now you're probably thinking: Why should I listen to you?

Look, this is not a brag post, but I actually have a masters in Economics and I work in the markets as a full time job. I basically research this shit for a living. I could post a bunch of bloomberg charts to accommodate my fancy words but I believe the majority of the readers will get the gist. Most of what I said it's all over the news anyway.