It is a very human-trait that we try to draw similarities of the current situation we are in and the past. Thus we are currently trying to compare this bull market with the last bull market which was in 2018 (talking about cycle bull markets here, not some random ones in between). But this comparison is clearly flawed as not only are win different times but also this bear market has clearly proven to be more brutal and have a longer duration. We have already been longer in a bull market than in 2018, so the comparison is already reprehensible. Instead we should, if at all, draw some comparisons to the 2015 bear market which was also longer than the one in 2018 but there is one more key similarity here. The 2015 bear market was where Mt. Gox collapsed, a crypto exchange that back then had 90% of the market share. The same thing happened now too (in a smaller magnitude) as first LUNA, one of the biggest cryptocurrencies with a $50B market cap, collapsed and now FTX, one of the biggest crypto exchanges. Furthermore we are also know just as in 2015 seeing people have a large amount of skepticism towards Crypto exchanges. Here is a graph showing the comparison from the price-level with the Realized Price(price where BTC is being bought divided by the total BTC in circulation) as key metric: BTC price and Realized Price chart from lookintobitcoin and a bit edited by me As we can see there is even another similarity between 2015 and now on the TA-level, those are the only times the BTC price has taken the crucial Realized Price metric as a Resistance. Let me know about your opinion on this observation, and obviously we shouldnot be comparing this bear market anyways but if you really had to 2015 is the better option and actually has some similarities opposing to 2018. [link] [comments] |
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