 | The price of Bitcoin today is moving in the range of 19,600 and 18,800 and is holding above 19,000 showing some strength and this is happening while relevant indexes such as the SP500 and the NQ100 are making new lows during this correction, but why is that happening? The gdp, gross domestic product, of the United States has been published at -0.6%, what does that mean? that the economy's gross domestic product has decreased in that range, by 0.6%. Where does this lead us or why this number is so important in spite of the fact that it was what the analysts and investors were expecting, basically because this gives rise to the fact that in the next few months they will claim or make official an economic recession, technically this has been said for a long time but it has not yet been made official in the United States, making it official goes against the risk markets and would lead to even more corrections. This week's U.S. jobless claims were released at 193,000 but were expected to be around 215,000, so it has been lower than expected. Therefore, it is presumed that the unemployment issue is not critical in the United States and this is an index that the authorities in the United States have been using to tell us that we are not in recession. Although the news is negative, unemployment is holding up. Bitcoin remains strong, two days ago the markets in general gave a rebound to the rise and this happened because the Central Bank in England decided to print more money, the same thing that all banks did in 2020 when all risk markets and bitcoin were rising placed money in circulation, if this behavior persists or is massified globally will be positive for risk markets, hopefully not massified for now. If we look at the Nasdaq chart we see how the last few weeks it has been pulling back, looking for new lows. Recently we see that the markets are going slightly up due to the Bank of England printing money with this quantitative easing, because their bonds went to the floor, remember that bonds is the way governments issue money associated with central banks. The main concern of governments is to lower inflation so this measure could be counterproductive. We will see if on October 13th when they report the US inflation data (PCE) inflation will stagnate or not. In the short term: With this graph the price of btc in black line and orange line the amount of btc in the exchanges. Here what we see is weakness in the market, as since September more than 78,000 btc have been sent to the exchanges and makes it clear that it is to sell or btc that have already been sold. In addition to that we see that the amount of new entities arriving to the ecosystem is at a minimum as we can see in the following chart. Currently on an average of 7 days the amount of new entities arriving is 83500, but if we compare with the entities or entities that were arriving when we were of 2021 were more than 160,000 new entities. Now the growth is higher than when we made the correction in May 2018. However if we look at the behavior of the miners we can see how they are selling very high amounts of btc equivalent to 8000 btc during the last month. This is supposed to be to pay for associated costs such as electricity so we should not be overly concerned. We will see what happens on October 13 with inflation data and government policies with money printing and how it will affect the price. I hope you liked the analysis, if I see acceptance I will continue to bring more :) [link] [comments] |
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