What are my chances to get tokens thru launchpad?

It may sound like a silly question first, but if you start wondering, what are the actual odds to get a token thru launchpad? Binance didn’t say what are the odds of winning such prize, a while ago, you could get a token with a first-come-first-served policy. Obviously the more money you put in the more you will cash out, but not everybody is a whale, myself included. In the current launchpad, for BETA, I committed 4 BNB, not a lot, not less either. But the question comes, do we really have a chance against those whales who cap out the hard cap at those events?