What do you think will happen with crypto prices?

Well as we know it, Russian has begun its attack on Ukraine. I don't want to be political here and I just want to talk about what's gonna happen to crypto in general.

So I have two set of thinking on what's going to happen

1. The stock market tanks and crypto will go along with it. It will be the crypto winter that all graphs have shown and whatever economist have predicted on their cycles and supercycles. Bitcoin drop back sub 20k+ levels or lower and 'crash' and finally goes back up again after 18months.
2. Russians buy in because their currency value is gonna be non-existent like Turkey, and Russia and EU ended at a stalemate with no more escalation apart from proxy wars and sanctions and market starts to shake it off. Btc holds its 28k level because so many commercial entities will buy in and Russians and its goverment will keep their currency there for a bit. After a few months, it recovers and consolidates between 35k to 44k.

Would welcome any third and fourth idea involving btc is a scam and will go extinct and btc would rocket to 7 digit numbers because I said so.