What if it doesn’t work the way we think?

Everyone keeps telling me that crypto works in mysterious ways, since joining this group, I’ve been told several different quotes “the market can keep you guessing longer than you can stay solvent” just to name one….

Everyone has pushed the rhetoric of no guarantees and yet I see posts and a lot of likes / comments confirming a winter / summer…. A halving….. and this leads me to believe crypto is readable or at least to some degree.

Am I missing something here? Does the ‘halving’ guarantee a pump? What if things don’t work out the way you envision?

BTC is a finite thing, there is no disputing that. But are past events always a good way of identifying future ones? I see the ETH chart, go up 200-300 bucks over a day some days, then plummet the next to either just below or back to where it started.

Does halving work for all of crypto or is every coin / project reliant on BTC continuing this halving based on past events?

I learned yesterday that crypto is not without it’s weaknesses, most recently inflationary fears brought BTC down a few thousand bucks.

I really want an in-depth conversation with people who truly understand crypto. I want to hear their thoughts, reasons either for or against.