Where are Grayscale funds flowing to?

GBTC trust is selling a lot of bitcoin, over 300,000 since conversion. It can be interpreted in 2 ways, I don't know which is correct.

1. Holders of GBTC are selling because of high fees, and re-buying the new 9 (Blackrock, Fidelity, etc)
2. GBTC is actually just draining bitcoin out of the market

Scenario 2 is much more bullish. This would mean that buying demand is matching an extra 300k BTC dumped on the market past couple months. when that dump stops (they'll run out eventuallly) price must adjust up.

Scenario 1 means the new 9 ETF's have not actually been as successful as people think. On many metrics, they currently look like the best ETF launches in history, accumulating 500k BTC ($35B) since launch. but what if that 500k is actually 200k? artificially inflated by people moving from the old trust, now high fee ETF, to the lower fee ETFs?

Obviously the correct answer is a mixture of both. Are there any reliable data to know to what extent each is the case? or solid hypotheses?