So, first things first so we can get that out of the way. Can SHIB (using SHIB as an example, bare with me) reach the price of $1? Sure, it could. This is crypto after all. But it is EXTREMELY IMPROBABLE.
Why, you ask, when BTC reached the price of almost $70k and it's lowest price was $0.006? Why cannot the same thing happen with SHIB? Bcs there is a thing called marketcap. Which is a multiplication of the total number of coins/tokens with it's current price. And while that number is theoretical (bcs if everyone started selling BTC/SHIB now, it's price would not stay the same, lowering the marketcap in the process), it is an important metric and can greatly affect the price.
So, enough small talk, giddyup, let's talk numbers.
Let's take SHIB. It has (currently) 549 TRILLION of coins (for comparison, there are currently "only" 19 million (not billion, not trillion) of BTC coins out there). If a value of a single coin reached the small price of $1, it would have a marketcap of $549 trillion. While I cannot foresee the future and cannot with 100% guarantee say this won't ever ever happen, I find it mind-numbingly difficult to believe. For comparison, 10 biggest companies in the world (including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook and 4 other companies) COMBINED have a marketcap of around $14 trillion. Let that sink in. Shib with price of $1 would be worth almost 40 times that of 10 biggest companies combined.
Now, did I ever think SHIB would have (at one point in time) a marketcap of $40 billion? No I did not, that completely shocked me. Shib made, what, a 1000x run in a matter of months. That's insane and precisely the reason why I'm saying, anything can happen. But can it make another run of 32000x (not %, actual x), which would bring it's marketcap from current $17 billion to $549 trillion?
shakes magic 8-ball
Outlook not so good
And I haven't even touched upon the difference between the marketcap and FULLY DILUTED marketcap.
TL; DR: Sure, price is important. But marketcap and the total number of coins greatly affect the price.
Edit: someone was so concerned about me they sent me the suicide hotline thing. Thank you but honestly, I'm not going to off myself (especially not bcs of marketcap of crypto in general or Shib in particular).
Edit 2: as u/peteb82 and u/wgcole01 said, I should have focused on coin supply, not actual marketcap.
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