Why Bitcoin is Still on Track

With Bitcoin pulling back and tariffs fear creeping in, some are calling for an early cycle top. But take a step back really, there are no clear signs that we’re heading into a recession or a true market breakdown. If the macro structure holds, BTC is still on track for a cycle top later this year.

Why This Isn’t a Macro Breakdown (Yet)

1. Tariffs as a Temporary Hurdle • Leverage, Not a Permanent Shock: Tariffs often serve as a negotiation tool rather than a lasting economic barrier. As talks progress, these fears could subside, similar to past trade disputes.

2. Inflation Is Stable • No signs of a 2022-style inflation spiral that would force the Fed to tighten aggressively. • The Fed can still ease later this year—which is what typically fuels Bitcoin’s late-cycle parabolic runs.

3. Unemployment Is Fine • No major labor market weakness → No imminent recession. • Bitcoin’s worst crashes happen when unemployment spikes and liquidity dries up—that’s not happening right now.

4. Bitcoin Follows Traditional Cycle Timing • Historically, BTC cycles peak after the halving, usually in Q4, not Q1. • 2017: BTC topped in December. • 2021: BTC double-topped in Q4. • 2024? The structure is still intact unless macro conditions break down.

5. The Key Risks: Inflation & Unemployment Surprises • If inflation reaccelerates, the Fed might delay rate cuts—bad for risk assets. • If unemployment spikes, liquidity dries up. • But until then, there’s no reason to assume Bitcoin has already peaked.

Bitcoin’s Likely Path from Here • Short-term shakeout → Consolidation → Final leg up into Q4 (unless inflation/unemployment forces a macro shift). • This pullback looks eerily similar to mid-cycle corrections in 2017 and 2021 before the final blow-off top.

If inflation stays tame and the job market holds, expect BTC to reverse and continue its cycle as planned.