Yes, crypto markets will crash, but I won't sell and neither should you

It's considered a foregone conclusion here that the bull market is going to end within a couple of months and there'll be a crash. I agree that this is probably what's going to happen, but I'm not even considering trying to time it, despite the potential for big gains. Here's why.

Mistiming the Top is Costly

I'm sure there'll be a crash soon, so why don't I sell now? Simple - I don't know if it'll crash from $70k to $30k, or from $200k to $70k, or even more. I don't expect this to be like the 2018 crash - apart from the massively expanded retail investor base, we have institutions, companies, and hell, even a country waiting to buy the dip - any dip won't be as sharp or as protracted.

I also don't think we've hit the euphoric peak of this bull run. Anecdotally, I and some friends who have been involved in crypto for a long while now refer to what we call the "dad index" - when all of our parents start asking for tips on crypto, or worse, telling us what crypto they think will do well, that's when we should sell. That hasn't happened yet.

I personally have a terrible time timing the tops and bottoms. If you could time the tops and bottoms of crypto, you'd already be too wealthy to mess around on reddit.

I'm earning interest along the way

Between staking and lending, all of my crypto is put to use generating more crypto. Any potential profits from timing the top and bottom have to be considered against the loss of interest, which may not be significant for my BTC holdings, but for my some of my tokens with quite high staking interest? There's a good chance any profits I'd take would be smaller than if I had just done nothing.

The Taxman

I hate tax. Regardless of philosophical discussions about whether taxation is theft, I do not want to pay a single penny more than I have to my government, but I also understand that you do not fuck with the taxman. I have an exit strategy to minimise my tax liability, and so taking profits and having it eaten by Capital Gains is not something I'm interested in.

With that in mind, good luck with whatever strategy you pick!