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Be Careful - DCA is NOT a Sound Strategy In Most Crypto Cases

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by COINS NEWS 167 Views

I routinely see people talking about how DCA is the "right way" and is the core strategy everyone should be using. Having been an investor (and no, not just in crypto), and worked in finance for ~10 years, I hope the following can be of use to the new people in crypto:

  1. DCA *is a good strategy* typically only for broad, diversified, passive investments. For example, in a Total Market Index instrument, or a gov bond package etc.
  2. DCA *can be a good strategy* for assets with strong fundamentals. You could theoretically make this case for BTC and ETH (and even that's a stretch). But vast majority of crypto projects do not fall in this category.
  3. DCA is *not a good strategy* for any assets that are highly volatile and you are expecting a big price pump on to realize your target gains. This is where vast majority of crypto projects (and crypto investors) fit in. It doesn't matter how much you DCA projects that have a real risk of going to zero, you are essentially throwing good money after the bad.
  4. DCA is a recommended strategy for dividend bearing investments (where you are getting a solid APY that offsets opportunity cost etc). This allows you to over time build up a strong yield cashflow independent of market fluctuations.

Vast majority of crypto investments just don't fit the DCA model. Almost no crypto project has fundamentals in place (there is no true revenue source, no product or service provided to end consumers etc). BTC practically acts like a mid-cap 1000 index fund, and one can argue in favor of DCA with it. And almost no crypto projects have reliable non-crypto based dividend yields (with a few, rare exceptions).

And most investors in crypto are simply not looking for a 5-10% annual increase in their portfolio (the kind of target DCA is most suitable for). They are looking for 100%-10000% gains. If you are in this category, you are much better off taking a small amount that you will not miss and putting it towards a few cryptos you are convinced will do well in the long term. Then forget about it and don't check on it for a few months at least.

Set some price alerts where you will take profit (for example if you are up by a significant amount, you should exit from a portion of the portfolio to recoup your principal). This is the best way for you to capitalize on your 'lottery ticket' without being wiped out or panicking daily as the market fluctuates.

I am not a hater and if you feel like this is saying something negative about your chosen project, it isn't. But you should take a moment to re-evaluate your position if it is causing an emotional response.

TLDR: DCA is not a sound strategy for most crypto projects and has become a 'cover' for addictive/gambling behaviors which is just throwing good money after bad.

submitted by /u/hjrocks
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