Bitcoin Halving Shock: The Real Impact of Supply Reduction in Dollar Value!

Bitcoin halving is a mechanism that reduces the mining reward, thereby adjusting the rate of new Bitcoin supply, which can have a significant impact on market prices.

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Situation at the third halving:

- Mining Reward: Reduced from 12.5BTC to 6.25BTC

- Closing Price: $9,670

- Dollar Value of Single Mining Reward: Approximately $60,437 (6.25 x 9,670)

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Projection for the fourth halving:

- Mining Reward: Reduced from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC

- Estimated Closing Price: $42,000

- Dollar Value of Single Mining Reward: Approximately $131,250 (3.125 x 42,000)

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If we evaluate based on the number of BTC, it appears that the supply reduction during the third halving was more significant. However, if we consider the dollar value, the supply shock resulting from the fourth halving is substantially greater. As the price of Bitcoin rises, even if the reduction in mining rewards is minor in terms of BTC, the impact in dollar terms can be considerable.

Even taking into account that miners may not sell their Bitcoin immediately after mining, this calculation provides a meaningful perspective that challenges the common assertion that the supply shock from the fourth halving will be less than that of the third.