Bitcoin is trading at basically the 365 average close price

*365 day average close price

The average close price over the last year is $46,145.

Historically, the average close price during a bull run year (2013, 2017) is ~50% of the average price of the subsequent 3 years (2014-2016, 2018-2020).

That would estimate the average over the next three years (2022-2024) at $92,290.

Obviously the past is not guaranteed to repeat but what I like about this simple metric is that it makes simple sense: it assumes price signals and anchoring.

Think about it - if you were interested in Bitcoin at any point in the year, you looked at the price. Like it or not, the first time you really examine Bitcoin’s price (and wonder whether it’s something you should own) is going to be anchored in your mind forever. By the time it, say, doubles from that price, you realize you should own some, and will FOMO buy beyond this price, especially if you think it will never go below it again.

Well, anyone who looked at Bitcoin for the first time this year anchored a price. Average everyone who did that together, the anchor price is ~$47k. $47k will always seem like a good price to people who first bought/considered Bitcoin in 2021. Double it will be the point those casual buyers “take profits”. Until then next halving, when we blow past those numbers and they all suddenly sit up, realize they should have hodled all along, and FOMO all in, taking us to a new era.

Just some food for thought.