Controversial: Is money printing more important than BTC halving? What if 4-year cycle is a myth?

The upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 2024, is anticipated as a potential catalyst for a bull run in the cryptocurrency market. However, historical data suggests that previous halvings alone did not trigger significant upward trends. Instead, macroeconomic factors, particularly the growth of fiat money supply by major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China, played a crucial role in driving bull markets. Previous Bitcoin bull runs correlated with a 6% or higher aggregate M2 money supply growth from these central banks, while bear markets coincided with slower money supply growth. This pattern highlights the importance of fiat liquidity in influencing Bitcoin's performance.

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BTC price and M2 money growth supply

So what if there is no more violent money printing in upcoming years and we are officially heading into long lasting recession? Will we get another grand finale of our beloved 4-year cycle or we will be in this crypto winter for next few years?