Could Bitcoin solo mining really be considered an alternative to state lotteries? Let’s run the numbers. Need the math whizzes on this sub to compare odds and required investment

Current payout after the latest halving at 3.125 BTC (about $196,000 USD at current prices)

A somewhat equivalent payout could be obtained by playing the Fantasy 5 lottery:

https://www.calottery.com/draw-games/fantasy-5

* Prize amount for five number match $182,000.

* Odds of guessing all 5 of 5 winning numbers: 1 in 575,757.

What would be the odds of winning the solo mining Bitcoin lottery? How would they compare to state lotteries considering expenses like initial equipment investment and ongoing electricity?

Interesting facts about state lotteries:

Americans spent a staggering $17 billion on lottery tickets in 2023, which translates to an average expenditure of $50.19 per person. Approximately one-third of the revenue generated by state lotteries is retained by the state. The individuals who win these lotteries typically take home around 65% of the winnings. However, this amount is subject to further taxation. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) deducts 24% off the top for federal taxes. Additionally, state taxes can further reduce the take-home amount, with states like New York imposing an 8.82% tax. After accounting for these deductions, a “winner” may end up with only 32% of the original lottery proceeds!