Does the bitcoin halvening has more investor psychology to it than the economic factors?

At this point, the four year cycle is one of the very few things every crypto investor seems to believe in, but lately I have seen many people in this sub say that they don't expect a bullrun to occur after the next halvening because the macro condition is bad and might even get worse.

So my question is, do you think that since most crypto investors still believe that the halvening is the signal that starts a bullrub, it will keep happening regardless of the economic situation? Since every crypto investor will be buying and telling everyone else to buy, it will lead to crypto prices skyrocketing like every bull cycle.

Or is the economic factor too important to ignore, as in crypto won't surge when people are struggling to make ends meet financially, and the four year bull cycle might be actually be broken?