BTC currently trades around $40k and with miner earnings coming 99% from inflation and 1% from transaction fees. Within 10 years, BTC will undergo 3 more halvings. So by 2032, at least one of the following must happen:
- The price per bitcoin is $320K
- The hash power and network security is way down.
- Miners are mining at a loss (perhaps as a public service?)
- People are paying 100x more fees to use bitcoin.
- The 21 million hard cap is abandoned.
2-5 will stay regardless, but if we extend out a little farther the price must be $640K (2036), $1.28M (2040), $2.56M (2044), $5.12M (2048), 10.24M (2056) to pay for the same level of security.
While BTC price has more than doubled at each halving so far, I think items 2-5, or some combination thereof, are more likely in the medium term.
It really makes you appreciate ETH's sustainable security budget - constant inflation to pay stakers, burn based on usage.
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