Copy trading gets sold as "find someone good, press copy, earn what they earn." I wanted to see what that actually looks like, so I pulled every copy trading vault Hyperliquid has ever had and simulated what people really do with $10k.
What $10k became after 6 months
Each run starts on the 1st of a month (23 starts, July 2024 to May 2026) and only uses what the leaderboard showed that day. "Following the #1" means putting everything in whichever vault was top by 30 day return and moving to the new #1 each month. All results are after the leader's 10% profit share.
| What the copier did | $10k after 6 months (median) |
|---|---|
| All in the #1 vault, switch monthly | $237 |
| Split across the top 10, re-pick monthly | $4,611 |
| Split across the top 10, never switch | $7,758 |
| Split across the 10 biggest vaults, re-pick monthly | $9,759 |
| Just hold BTC + ETH | $10,316 |
Over a full year it's the same story, just worse. From 16 start dates, the #1 chaser ended at $25 at best, the re-picked top 10 at a median $691 and holding at $8,682
Why Hyperliquid
Most platforms only show the lead trader's own return, so you never see what happened to the people who copied or to the traders who blew up and disappeared. Hyperliquid's copy trading runs through vaults and every vault's balance, profit and followers are onchain, including the ones that closed. That's 9,470 vaults opened through Oct 30 and I used all of them.
Time works for holders, against copiers
With holding, the longer you stay, the better your odds. Half BTC and half ETH from any day since 2018 made money 64% of the time after 1 year, 70% after 2, 97% after 3 and 100% after 4.
Copy trading on Hyperliquid runs the other way. Of followers still in a vault today, 52% of those in for 3 to 6 months are in profit, 20% of those in for 1 to 2 years, and 5% of those in for more than 2 years. (Followers who cashed out aren't in this data, so it's a snapshot, not every start date.)
The exception
Some vaults did hold up: the ones with a year or more of history, small drops and steady weeks. None of the ones still open was near the top of the 30 day board. A split across vaults like that (1+ year record, worst drop under 30%, up over the last 6 months) beat holding from 10 of 12 one year start dates. But only 1 to 4 vaults a month qualified before Sept 2025, so take that one with a grain of salt.
How I measured it- full report and method
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