Our governments, banks, corporations and any number of organisations that think they're progressive will almost all invariably go through the cycle of doubt and distaste, followed by intrigue and FOMO.
Having worked in a number of organisations large and small, traditional and "cutting edge", and listened to CEO types talk about "innovation" and adoption, I think it is not difficult to predict that, despite all the doubts they sow today about cryptocurrency, they will eventually adopt it.
They are quite easy to predict because they are invariably like this:
- Initially, they're risk-averse. They are fond of reading up on innovation and developments in the industry, opportunities and scholarly analyses (on LinkedIn, probably). They will first encounter and regurgitate many negative reviews on cryptocurrency, for the simple reason that it is a burgeoning technology and therefore unproven. At this stage, CEO types like to speak loudly and authoritatively about how it is bad for you and the establishment.
- They rarely pioneer, preferring to adopt the established. They cannot afford risk. By dint of this, it is rare for most govts, corporations to actually pioneer new things. They may dip their toes in it early, but ultimately, despite all their talk about innovation, they will only adopt what becomes established. This is usually X years down the road after the technology has seen many successes by actual pioneers (e.g. what NFT providers are pioneering now).
- Your CEO/boss will ask you, belatedly, to look into this "new technology". Two years or 3 (maybe more) after the tech is established, your boss or company will quip to you, "Let's look into how we can integrate cryptocurrency into our business" as if it's the latest thing on the market. Boss is FOMOing now. Smile and pray you're not too late.
Examples of past cycles of this phenomenon include ecommerce and social media. Initially frowned upon for being unsecure or uncontrollable (respectively), big organisations and governments eventually adopted them with enthusiasm. I still remember vividly the amount of resistance that social media met from C-suite types, a decade ago.
(All this relates to the well-known Gartner Hype Cycle. Though with regards to cryptocurrency, I am not sure if we are in a Peak of Inflated Expectations or dare I say, are we now in the Slope of Enlightenment...?)
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