Great China Hashrate Migration: we might see a maximum difficulty drop of -25%. Here's what it means for miners.

This year’s great China Hashrate Migration has turned into a Hashrate Exodus. Much has been said about long-term implications for decentralization and the mining industry as a whole. Let's zoom in on the next difficulty epoch: an unprecedented period of mining profitability.

insights.braiins.com

At the moment, difficulty is expected to adjust down 20% in 1 week. Based on more recent block times, we may even see a maximum downward adjustment of 25%.

https://preview.redd.it/en7lpnv3if771.png?866&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9b01e0e8b2e97d2feab322252fd148b285eb3ff

Explanation of why difficulty adjustments are capped, from Mastering Bitcoin.

This means that mining profitability will increase by 20-25% in BTC terms — the largest increase in Bitcoin’s history. While hundreds of thousands of ASICs sit idle in trucks, cargo ships, planes, and warehouses, those that remain online become more valuable.

Let’s check some profitability stats, starting with the machine that redefined ASIC longevity: the Antminer S9. Using Braiins OS+ firmware with overclocking settings to maximize revenue, we see an increase of 2700 sats/day & nearly $1/day profit with 3¢/kWh electricity.

insights.braiins.com

https://preview.redd.it/69fepapcif771.png?841&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2e375af669b0ac8bf2eff36de2f919e877516ec

How about the latest-gen? Here’s a look at the Antminer S19 Pro. Pre-adjustment, it’s already mining nearly 70k sats/day. After a conservative -20% adjustment, revenue increases to 86.7k sats/day and profit jumps by almost $6/day with 6¢/kWh electricity.

Even with stock firmware, the Whatsminer M20S is profiting nearly $10/day at 6¢/kWh electricity. Factor in the -20% adjustment, and you gain 11k sats/day, or an extra tree fiddy ($3.50) in fiat profit.

And if you are a miner we know, we know: wen whatsminer Braiins OS+???

https://preview.redd.it/y3xwiywqif771.png?930&format=png&auto=webp&s=f96dc12cbf49460ded71d694da61bd2afbfa79c8

​

When making mining profitability projections, it’s always wise to factor in a steep difficulty adjustment. The average adjustment since 2017 has been more than +5%, meaning that mining profitability has typically decreased by 5% every 2 weeks.

For miners outside of China who prepared for the typical difficulty increases, these downward adjustments mean that they’ll outperform even their most optimistic projections for Q2 and Q3 2021.

End. Salute to all the miners in China who have helped secure the Bitcoin network for the past decade. It's the end of an era.

https://reddit.com/link/o7pzqb/video/al633roijf771/player