This market isn't running on randomness.

It's not a bunch of people randomly throwing darts to decide on trades.

In fact, for the most part, it's not even people.

It's estimated that 70-86% of the trading volume is actually done by bots.

https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2019/08/21/research-crypto-trading-bots/

https://www.cnbctv18.com/cryptocurrency/what-are-cryptocurrency-trading-bots-and-how-do-they-work-11676662.htm

How do bots work?

They do a lot more than set buy and sell limits, They actually do the analysis of the market data for you.

They do the job of a quantitative analyst. Those mathematicians on Wall Street who figure out how to analyze market data, use statistical analysis to evaluate risk/reward, and crunch that into a trading strategy.

There are also bots there just to influence the market. Sometimes created by traders. It's also suspected that many of the major exchanges use bots on their trading platform. And they are nudging the market and volume as well.

And yes, these bots all take into account support, moving averages, trends, and all that technical analysis that people assume is just astrology.

Call it self-fulfilling, but that's how the majority of the market is trading right now.

Who are these bots?

There's many popular bots for top exchanges like Pionex, Cryptohopper, Trality, Conirule, etc...

Anyone can create a bot. And if you have the money, you can get some really bright people to customize one for you. Whether you're a whale or an exchange.

But the important thing to understand is that there is a pecking order. People with money can potentially prey on the market and on weaker bots, with a more complex bot.

The Whales.

The whales have two advantages. Despite much higher market caps, the current trading volume still gives whales a big advantage at pushing the market.

On top of that, they likely trade with the better trading bots to begin with. And probably use a more Machiavellish approach. When you're at the top of the food chain, Machiavelism seems to be often the best approach to protect your power.

Keep in mind that since 2017, we've had CME futures, and a lot of different ways that traders can short the market.

Whales are no exception.

Why only wait to go up to make money, when you can make money in both directions? Crypto is a volatile market. Anyone with a superior trading bot, a lot of money, and some balls, can make so much more money from this volatility by trading on both sides.

And we can actually see the symptoms and effects of this with these Wyckoff distribution we've seen.

A Wyckoff distribution is often the result of the trading behavior of taking advantage of this, and nudging the market with a little bit of manipulation. Causing periods of accumulation with rising prices. Crabbing. Then unloading and opening short positions. Taking advantage of dips. Buy low again. Rinse and repeat.

Are whales the only ones in control?

No, but they are in the best position to...position themselves at an advantage. The market still has its own forces. As we've seen with how cyclical things have been, tokenomics, and the domination of Bitcoin on the entire market, have still been the dominant forces.

And a demand for crypto, not just as payment, but investment, and use as a tool by companies, has had a powerful effect on its long term trend.

This long term trend, is why whales will likely continue to row their boat with the current and this upward trend, while only occasionally shorting the market when things look vulnerable enough.

Will this cycle be broken.

There is only one sure-fire way to break the cycle. That is for another coin to overtake Bitcoin and become the hegemon.

All these trading bots are basing their calculations on historical data based on a market dominated by Bitcoin, and by Bitcoin's own tokenomics and algorithm. It's a rare thing to have something like an algorithm influence market cycles like clockwork. This is probably why bots will likely have an easier time in a crypto market than a stock market. They only need to understand one thing, Bitcoin.

But the second that ends, those bots are going to have to adjust fast and re-learn everything.