 | I recently started trying to predict the Moon to Karma ratio, because how cool would that be? I figured out that the total karma per Moon round correlates with the activity in the daily discussion threads. Like this: I thought it would be close, but I didn't expect it to be that close. Then I wondered how the BTC price activity affects what goes on in the daily discussion. So I collected all the data. I went back to when Moons were introduced and organised it in Moon rounds, just so its easier for me to graph with other stuff. I got the BTC price from CMC and took the closing figure for each day, then I managed to get the comment count for each daily since 13th May 2020 (There are some gaps with the daily's as they were deleted or something like that, but its not many and it averages out alright on the whole I think) Then I made a fucking spreadsheet, didn't I.And some graphsHere's one: Yeah of course the price going up will increase activity round here, so what you dork? So I took a closer look.I graphed each round. Rounds 1-7 look kind of boring, the same as the market was at the time. I played around with the axis scales and you can see a little bit of what's going on but we'll skip them for this post. Round 8 & 9 were when BTC started smashing ATH's and shit started kicking off around here. Round 8Round 9This is when we started getting easily into the multiple thousand comments per day in the daily. Round 10(This one is broken because I couldn't find all the comment counts, so I just averaged them) (If anyone has got the numbers for the daily in round 10 then hook me up please) Round 11This is where the good stuff starts. (If you're weird like me) I always thought that the price going up would be the major driver in comment amounts. People posting "To the Moon" and all the other good hype and mania. But it looks like its quite the opposite. It looks like misery really does enjoy company We get the most activity and the highest peaks when the price freefalls. Rounds 12 - 15Almost every time the price dips a decent amount, the comment count spikes. Can anyone remember what happened on 19/05 other than the price dip? That spike is the highest daily I've recorded at 58,550 comments. My original idea to predict the Moon ratio is still a work in progress, it uses the daily comment count so it looks like it might be easier for me to just build a BTC price prediction and work from there. For round 15 I predicted 0.292 when it was 0.304, so I was close. TL;DR Misery likes company and I fucking love spreadsheets [link] [comments] |
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