How to Detect BTC Top and Why Everybody Should be Aware of the Data

Hey guys,

I had another thread for TA and Wyckoff and there were many people who think TA or any kind of analysis is BS because crypto market acts different. I strongly disagree. If people are involved, it will act like any market and fluctuate between fear and greed cycles. While professionals take advantage of data and make good decisions, most people will act buy high, sell low because of emotions.

The more you are in the market and study hard, you start to get an edge over people who buy/sell randomly.

Let's see how it translate to data.

In a previous Reddit post, I talked about accumulation structure and called $29k a spring, and so far it seems I was right (no one is right all the time and anything can happen of course). I explained why I think it was accumulation.

In this post, I'll show how we could detect the top. You can't of course know the exact time to enter or exit, but you can increase your chances even if you are DCAing or buying as you have money. No matter what, you can get cheaper coins with a little research.

Here it goes

https://preview.redd.it/jdsk8bsa89a71.png?1860&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8a4965b5d0812c4f6914950bb4773a70ec886d6

Okay, it may seem complex at first, but it is quite easy. Charts from top to the bottom

1) BTC Price

2) BTC addresses having 0.1 BTC or more (around $6,000+ at the top)

3) BTC addresses having 1 BTC or more (around $60,000+ at the top)

4) BTC addresses having 10 BTC or more (around $600,000+ at the top)

5) BTC addresses having 100 BTC or more (around $6,000,000+ at the top)

6) BTC addresses having 1,000 BTC or more (around $60,000,000+ at the top)

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Let's see how they react. Number of addresses over 0.1 BTC kept buying while price was going sideways (look at the red boxes). That means retail kept buying. In the meantime, Number of addresses having 1-1,000 BTC, was selling aggressively.

Look at how addresses over 1,000 BTC increased until very top and how sharply they declined. This started "BEFORE" China FUD. So, those whales probably knew what was gonna happen and distributed their coins before the crash while retail kept buying until very end.

Then look into purple box. Where I think is accumulation. Look how retail dumped in the middle of accumulation (most people considering we'll see $20k (maybe we will, but unlikely)). In the meantime, bigger accounts stopped selling. The biggest BTC addresses started to increase again (it is not very visible in the image as it is streched.)

Here is a bigger image of balances with over 10 BTC (mid-tier, traders probably). Look how they are accumulating.

https://preview.redd.it/gmzdd3gy99a71.png?777&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e14491a18b49f783095334c984ddfd76577b2be

So, at the top, while price was going sideways, price action was showing a possibility of 2 things: Accumulation or Distribution. It was luck to decide which one was that. However, if you couple it with on-chain analysis, it showed it was more likely that it was distribution because of the buyer's or seller's profile.

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I really love on-chain data with Bitcoin. Think about it, you can literally see where money is flowing. Which address is doing what, how many BTC is moving. It is impossible with the stock market. Banks, institutions, hedge funds move their money without any one of us noticing. They can just dump anytime they feel like and we can't know. However, when money moves in the blockchain, anybody with a $39 Glassnode account (or using free public information with a little creativity) can detect it and take positions.

So, long story short,

While price was moving sideways at the top: Big addresses sold, small ones bought. That was an indication of a distribution schematic. Now big ones seem to be going sideways/a little up, suggesting an accumulation structure.

Any structure can be broken and price can go anywhere. But hey, you can use this data to time your buying even if you are a lifetime sat accumulator!

Data is from Glassnode, I'm using their Tradingview integration. No affiliation whatsoever.