I have Glassnode subscription. I have been following the on chain metrics since the dip in May. I am comparing both on chain and the charts of the current sideways market to previous long bear markets and consolidation markets aka crab market.
At first in May, there were a lot of negative metrics like miners capitulation, whale and retail capitulation.
But since the middle of June, miners are accumulating, whales are accumulating, only retail is mostly selling but also the number of wallets keeps trending up. In long bear markets, this will not happen.
The current situation looks exactly the same as the middle part of 2013 and 2017. Some boring months and then suddenly the mother of all bull runs out of nowhere.
Remember that BTC was 2.5k around June-July in 2017. You wouldn't have believed it would hit 20k by December back then either. 2013 same story with a lot of sideways during middle of the year.
First it was Elon FUD. Then in the last 3 to 4 weeks, Bitcoin has overcome being banned by the world's most populous country. It only made a slight impact on price. Difficulty adjusted and now miners are relocating and coming back online with renewables.
FUD is an integral part of BTC bull cycle. Silk road + China ban (2013), then block wars + China ban (2017), then Elon energy FUD + China ban (2021)
Bitcoin is antifragile AF. These attacks never work on Bitcoin. It always makes Bitcoin stronger, so expect a raging bull run to start soon.
Bitcoin history shows that dip buyers have always won. Dip sellers just end up buying at higher price. So take your opportunity or you will regret later.
In 2013, BTC started in 3 figures and reached 4 figures.
In 2017, BTC started in 4 figures and reached 5 figures.
In 2021, BTC started in 5 figures and will reach 6 figures.
It's like clockwork. A mathematical miracle!
Edit : These are my thoughts based on my own research. NFA. DYOR.
Edit : One more thing. This week there was 40k GBTC unlock. The impact was very minimal compared to 34k GBTC unlock in June. After Tuesday, there are no more large GBTC unlocks. I'll watch next couple of days and then take my position and ride to six figures ????
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