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I Watched +300 Bitboy Videos Totalling +46H and Here's My Analysis

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I Watched +300 Bitboy Videos Totalling +46H and Here's My Analysis

TLDR: Bitboy outperforms BTC&ETH 50/50 portfolio by 485.09% and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by 1362.81%, but there's a catch

FYI: Here's the link to the Excel file with over 2.8 million data. It took me 7 days to make this or about 70 hours

Key points about the analysis:

  • Coin prices were taken at close from CoinGecko.
  • Playlists used: "Coin & Token Reviews," "Token Reviews," "Top Crypto Lists," "Portfolio," "Hodl, Trade, or Dump," and "Altcoin Picks." Additionally, I used random coin recommendations outside of these playlists.
  • Start/End date for the analysis: March 28, 2018–February 24, 2022.
  • Time Frames are the specific days after the mentioned date of the coin.
  • BTC&ETH 50/50 portfolio and SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) dates were similar to Bitboy’s.
  • Total coins in the portfolio: 321
  • Every mention/recommendation corresponds to a dollar invested in the particular cryptocurrency, and additional mentions result in additional dollar investments. For instance, three mentions amount to a total of $3.
  • Investments in BTC, ETH, and the S&P 500 were calculated on a daily basis, with each trading day representing a $1 investment.

The Analysis:

Figure 1

Figure 2

As you see from Figure 1 and Figure 2, the only time Bitboy outperformed the BTC&ETH 50/50 portfolio and the SPDR S&P 500 Index was at the ATH prices of the coins he recommended. This is a win, but we have to be real here.

Is it really possible to sell 321 coins at their ATH prices? No.

So, Bitboy is not the best coin picker for gains. You have to also consider the fact that the first recommendations were back in 2018, in a bear market. And even buying in the bear market and then coming into the bull market of 2021 did not increase the ROI.

Have a look at Figure 3. Out of 321 coins, this figure shows

  • total coins with a positive ROI
  • total coins with a negative ROI
  • N/A means the coin did not have a price at that time frame (if the coin was recommended before the release date, i.e., on February 24, 2022, meaning that on the 1D Time Frame, it will not have a price).
  • ITC means impossible to calculate; no data for a specific coin was found.
  • DEAD: The coin no longer exists.

Figure 3

If you wanted to use Bitboy as a day trading strategy, it would be optimal in the 1D, 1W, and ATH Time Frames. Optimal, not best. The probable reason for this is that his audience began purchasing the coin, causing its value to rise in the short duration. The rest of the Time Frames would give you less than a 50% win rate.

In conclusion, as always, nobody knows s**t about f**k, and always DYOR before buying anything.

submitted by /u/doctorbirdee
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